What Has Changed Since Previous Email?
- Heavy rain potential has generally decreased. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) remains in the northwestern portions of our area, beyond the Houston metro.
Overview:
- Unsettled weather pattern late this week into next week.
- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible
- Axis of heaviest rainfall likely will remain northwest of our area at least through the weekend
Weather Synopsis:
Weather Synopsis: An upper air pattern shift is in progress over the US with deepening troughs over the western US starting to edge eastward…the first of which will arrive across Texas on Thursday into Friday. A very warm (with near record/record highs) and humid air mass is in place over the region, and a few showers will be possible today moving inland off the Gulf and again on Thursday. Better lift begins to arrive with a weak frontal boundary late Thursday night into Friday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Any chances for severe weather look low with lacking instability and the best dynamics passing to our north early Friday.
It should be noted that a higher chance of more sustained heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding is likely over portions of central Texas and the TX Hill Country which can be extremely sensitive to heavy rainfall. Flash flooding of normally dry creeks and rivers will be possible from this afternoon into Friday morning.
The front will linger near the coast late Friday into the weekend, and guidance remains at odds as to how much dry air works into the area and if rain chances can be brought down and for how long. For now, it looks like scattered activity may linger near the coast into Saturday, but the next upper level storm system will quickly approach from the west and will surge moisture back into the area by Sunday into Monday.
This second storm system currently looks to take a more southern route deeper across the state and offer a better chance of widespread (and much needed) rainfall…some heavy in the Sun-Mon period. Timing is in question and guidance has been bouncing around a lot with the timing details, but at least for this morning there is some general consensus that at some point Sunday into Monday showers and thunderstorms could be widespread.
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts Thursday-Friday will be on the order of .5-1.5 inches which will be easily handled in the current drought parched regime the area is in. Current early look at rainfall potential Sun-Mon is in the 1–3 inch range and again will mostly be handled with the dry soils.
One item to note is that more significant rainfall amounts are likely to be in the northwest of our area across central and north Texas both late this week and potentially again early next week impacting the Brazos, Colorado, Navasota, and Trinity basins. While soils are also dry in these areas, rainfall amounts may generate run-off, and river rises that would then translate southward into our area next week. Current forecasts keep everything below flood stage, but something to keep an eye on as rainfall piles up over the next 5 days.
